The Bond Market: Ryan Indexes
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
The Treasury yield curve is the risk-free baseline that investors can use to measure the intrinsic value of any investment. The Ryan Treasury Indexes shown here display how interest rate changes affect returns usually in an inverse relationship (yields go down, returns go up and vice versa). Interest rate risk (systematic risk) accounts for over 90% of the risk/reward behavior of most investment grade bonds. The Ryan Cash Index is an equal-weighted portfolio of the 1-6 month Treasury Bill auctions and the Ryan Index is an equal weighted portfolio of the 2-30 year Treasury auction issues. Modified duration is a measure of interest rate sensitivity. It measures the approximate price return given any yield move (yield move x modified duration as a negative number = price return).
YIELD
TOTAL RETURN (%)
  Index Current Wk
ago
Yr
ago
3 yrs
ago
52 wk
high
52 wk
low
Modified
Duration
1-day MTD YTD 1-yr 5-yr*
1 Month Treasury 121.611 0.066 0.076 0.031 0.122 0.163 0.000 0.077 ... 0.01 0.03 0.0 1.0
3 Month Treasury 250.354 0.086 0.096 0.051 0.183 0.117 0.000 0.249 ... 0.02 0.04 0.1 1.4
6 Month Treasury 260.403 0.142 0.147 0.102 0.305 0.163 0.010 0.501 ... ... -0.03 0.2 1.8
Ryan Cash 259.840 0.122 0.126 0.089 0.267 0.158 0.026 0.443 ... 0.01 0.01 0.2 1.5
1 Year Treasury 105.569 0.193 0.183 0.173 0.458 0.214 0.061 0.944 ... 0.01 ... 0.3 n.a.
2 Year Treasury 1414.009 0.305 0.278 0.520 0.891 0.539 0.157 1.993 -0.02 -0.06 0.25 1.2 3.7
3 Year Treasury 112.622 0.416 0.378 0.909 1.386 0.909 0.287 2.965 -0.05 -0.07 0.17 2.7 n.a.
5 Year Treasury 1267.362 0.770 0.732 1.797 2.210 1.799 0.711 4.825 -0.14 0.3 1.5 8.7 8.0
7 Year Treasury 127.607 1.201 1.191 2.487 2.956 2.544 1.142 6.625 -0.25 0.9 1.9 13.4 n.a.
10 Year Treasury 1591.467 1.793 1.777 3.154 3.455 3.199 1.702 9.115 -0.51 1.6 2.8 17.8 9.5
30 Year Treasury 2823.947 2.893 2.932 4.299 4.389 4.401 2.761 19.798 -1.88 4.8 1.7 34.6 12.4
Ryan Index 1335.125 1.230 1.215 2.194 2.548 2.210 1.172 7.554 -0.47 1.2 1.4 12.8 8.2
Source: Ryan ALM
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